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Degrees of Belief: Subjective Probability and Engineering Judgment, by Steven G. Vick
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"Degrees of Belief: Subjective Probability and Engineering Judgment" artfully weaves together three elements at the very core of engineering: uncertainties in knowledge; inductive reasoning; and individual expertise. Written from a geotechnical and earth sciences perspective, it brings new meaning to these concepts for nearly any field of engineering, science, or technology decision making. It begins by examining the tension between theory and practice, showing how this is manifested in the different meanings of probability used in reliability and risk analysis. This book emphasizes the cognitive processes used in conceptualizing uncertainty, with techniques and tools for subjective probability assessment. Turning to what this requires, it lends substance to professional judgment by examining its diagnostic, inductive, and interpretive elements. It also investigates the nature of expertise by bringing to life such towering figures as Roebling, Stevens, and Terzaghi, and their monumental engineering achievements. Masterfully synthesizing a wide variety of sources in a way directly relevant to engineers, the book draws on the history and philosophy of science through the work of Thomas Kuhn and Henri Poincar. It provides a window on current behavioral research that applies it to everyday thinking. This is all richly illustrated by examples from practice, including a gripping reassessment of the 1986 Challenger incident as seen through the eyes of the engineers who experienced it. From philosophical foundations to nuts and bolts, this is a groundbreaking book of serious content and sparkling style sure to engage any engineer or scientist who thinks about what they do and how they do it.
- Sales Rank: #565988 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Amer Society of Civil Engineers
- Published on: 2002-07-01
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.25" h x 6.25" w x 1.00" l, 1.40 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 472 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
Most helpful customer reviews
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Comments on Degrees of Belief
By Walter E. Hanson
The new book,DEGREES OF BELIEF. is much more than the subtitle, Subjective Probability and Engineering Judgment, would imply. The author presents a scholarly, sensible treatise that covers both theory and practice and, most importantly, builds a beautiful bridge between them.
The various quotes from lectures and writings of Karl Terzaghi, Ralph Peck and other giants of the engineering profession add much to the book. Moreover, the author's emphasis on the wholeness of theory and practice and that regardless of the paradigm, judgment is imperative,make this book so outstanding.
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Refreshingly Candid
By Michael F. Murphy
An excellent treatment of a number of the schools of thought underlying the study of probability, which, along with decision making, lies at the heart of risk management. As with Koen's "Discussion of the Method", Vick's candid admission that the fundamental assumptions of engineering are built largely on approximations, is downright sobering. Again like Koen, Vick reaches far beyond his own profession of engineering to find answers to the tough questions and similarly, he treats his subject with a healthy dose of humour and human interest.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
One of the best books I've ever read
By George R. Herrmann
In over 25 years as a practicing engineer, this is one of the best books I've ever read. It believe that it should be required reading for civil engineers prior to attaining a license to practice. Vick deals with the realities of the practice through candid discussions of uncertainty, judgment, expertise, overconfidence, and accepted methods. The material is centered around geotechnical engineering, but is equally and directly applicable to other areas such as hydrologic/hydraulic engineering, traffic engineering, ocean engineering, or any other sub-discipline that deals with natural systems directly. Make no mistake, it is a difficult read, but it is worth the time and effort.
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